COVID-19 ... how we cope :)

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  • Frank Dixon
    replied
    Re: Has Omicron wave peaked -- I don't believe this small a change is statistically significant. More data is needed to determine a trend, over the coming days. I think we could be headed for 1,000 or more in ICU within the next few weeks, province-wide.

    I stand by my earlier prediction, of a long, hard slog for Ontario health care, during the next 3 months, especially for the regions within 150 km. of Toronto. This is primarily because of the very large number of unvaccinated adults living there, and the 'urban dominance' of the virus. There are about as many unvaccinated adults living in that region, about one million, as the entire population of Saskatchewan (just over one million), or the entire population of Nova Scotia (just under one million). Omicron is showing a powerful ability to seriously infect the unvaccinated, but less of an ability to seriously infect those who are vaccinated, whether partially or fully. The more rural regions, such as the North, and parts of Eastern Ontario, will recover faster from Omicron (fewer people overall, less interpersonal interaction, higher ratios of care resources per person). The new COVID case counts in Kingston are dropping significantly; I think that Kingston will once again be able to soon accept patients from other jurisdictions, as it did repeatedly at earlier phases of the pandemic. It probably has the best resources of any health unit in the province.

    Two hopeful data notes from today:
    1) The site cnn.com puts Canada at an index of 191, meaning we have 191 vaccinations given per 100 Canadians, on average. Their rank puts us at #25 in the world, but in my view, a more accurate international ranking for us is #21, since non-independent small population entities Guernsey, Jersey, and Isle of Man are listed independently and ahead of us, when all three are part of the United Kingdom at the United Nations. As well, the small population Faeroe Islands is ahead of Canada, but is in fact part of Denmark at the international level.
    Next up for Canada is an index of 200, or two vaccinations per Canadian, on average. We will hit this at 76 million vaccinations, taking Canada's estimated population as 38 million (the 2021 Canadian census is due to be published in February, and that will provide a more accurate total). At an average of 400,000 vaccinations per day on weekdays, during the past couple of weeks, we will probably reach 200 within two weeks.
    2) For Ontario, more than 5 million booster doses have now been delivered, and this covers more than one third of the province's population. This is courtesy of thestar.com, the Toronto Star's website. Only people 18 and over are so far eligible for the booster, so judged from that perspective, more than 40 per cent of those eligible have received it, and there are just over 78 per cent of the population with two shots. The booster program started December 1, 2021, about six weeks ago, so that is a very strong uptake. For the record, this is about as many people as the entire population of British Columbia, and about equal to the combined population of Atlantic Canada, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and the three northern territories. This gives Ontario an index of about 196, or ahead of Canada, by about 5.

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  • Aris Marghetis
    replied
    Originally posted by Bob Gillanders View Post
    Update on Ontario hospitalization this morning:

    in ICU has been rising steadily
    Dec 21 - 165
    Jan 8 - 385
    Jan 12 - 505
    but today, small drop to 500.

    Has the Omicron wave peaked?
    If I may suggest, "rolling averages" are better for such questions.
    And they smooth out graphs, making them more comprehendable.

    Leave a comment:


  • Bob Gillanders
    replied
    Update on Ontario hospitalization this morning:

    in ICU has been rising steadily
    Dec 21 - 165
    Jan 8 - 385
    Jan 12 - 505
    but today, small drop to 500.

    Has the Omicron wave peaked?

    Leave a comment:


  • Sid Belzberg
    replied
    Originally posted by Pargat Perrer View Post

    Oh, the parking lot thing was an extrapolation of just how far things could swing the other way in 2 or 3 years' time. So what I wrote was

    "Ah, Peter McKillop, yeah i remember him, he almost called us all assholes. Well, i know it's 120 degrees out here due to climate change and there's no shade, but he'll have to stay out here in the hospital parking lot until there's a guy with a hacksaw ready to work on him."

    This is imagining that 2 or 3 years from now, the 85% who received an mRNA vaccine are all getting "sick" (i.e. having various medical emergencies, perhaps organ failures as an example) at roughly the same time, overfilling hospitals much much worse than is going on right now, so that only the unvaccinated are left to care for them (hence the "hacksaw" reference) and most of them cannot even get inside the hospitals and are being triaged outside in the parking lots.

    Not an impossible situation. Science fiction writers are probably already hard at work exploring this scenario, and their books or shows on Netflix should be coming out soon.
    https://www.meetmeforcoffee.co/dr-pe...ight-covid-19/
    Fauci: “Omicron variant will infect ‘just about everybody’ regardless of vaccination status.” Well, so much for all those mask mandates, lockdowns, curfews, vaccine passes, and quarantine camps. Ouch! Risk of Hospitalization very very low for vaccinated...even lower for covid recovered (almost zero!) and low for unvaccinated as well. Hopefully, Omicron is a natural vaccine although it is likely lab-made and longitudinal consequences are unknown.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...-live-updates/
    Last edited by Sid Belzberg; Thursday, 13th January, 2022, 09:43 AM.

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  • Pargat Perrer
    replied
    Originally posted by Peter McKillop View Post
    I don't understand your parking lot scenario.
    Oh, the parking lot thing was an extrapolation of just how far things could swing the other way in 2 or 3 years' time. So what I wrote was

    "Ah, Peter McKillop, yeah i remember him, he almost called us all assholes. Well, i know it's 120 degrees out here due to climate change and there's no shade, but he'll have to stay out here in the hospital parking lot until there's a guy with a hacksaw ready to work on him."

    This is imagining that 2 or 3 years from now, the 85% who received an mRNA vaccine are all getting "sick" (i.e. having various medical emergencies, perhaps organ failures as an example) at roughly the same time, overfilling hospitals much much worse than is going on right now, so that only the unvaccinated are left to care for them (hence the "hacksaw" reference) and most of them cannot even get inside the hospitals and are being triaged outside in the parking lots.

    Not an impossible situation. Science fiction writers are probably already hard at work exploring this scenario, and their books or shows on Netflix should be coming out soon.

    Leave a comment:

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